Pep Talk
Posted on January 7th, 2006 in Uncategorized by panzer || 6 Comments
Reaching for that Super Bowl star since 1937
Posted on January 7th, 2006 in Uncategorized by panzer || 6 Comments
Posted on January 3rd, 2006 in Uncategorized by JANET || No Comment
Posted on December 20th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || No Comment
The sheet doesn’t lie, folks. The Bengals are the 2005 AFC North Champions. We’re going to the Playoffs for the first time in 14 years.
…
Give me a minute.
…
Ok, I’m better.
We know the postseason is assured, and with that comes at least one Playoff home game. But can the Bengals get that elusive first round bye? The #1 seed is out of reach, even if the now-once-defeated Colts put up a bagel in the win column over the final two weeks of the season. The #2 seed however, is within our grasp if Denver decides to cooperate.
The Broncos have the tiebreaker on the Bengals, so if we are to jump one spot from the third position Denver needs to lose a game. Should they drop one, and the Bengals win out, then we’ll get the bye. The scenarios go like this:
The possible outcomes are pretty simple, and the schedule works out about as well as we could hope. Both the Bengals and Broncos have what should be a gimmie next week, followed by a tough game on the road to close out the season. It is not inconceivable that Cincinnati could pull this off.
Buffalo is on tap for us in the final home game of the season. We should win this one easily. Denver, meanwhile, has Oakland at home, and there is no reason to think the Broncos won’t win that game. The last week of the season is when things get interesting, and it’s all the AFC West’s fault.
As I said before, there is really only one Playoff spot up for grabs. New England has clenched their division, and their closest competitor, Miami, is at .500. We’ve got the AFC North wrapped up, and second place Pittsburgh stands at 9-5 fighting for a Wild Card. The Colts have the #1 seed locked up in their section of the AFC.
Jacksonville is 10-4 with Houston and Tennessee left to go. It will take an act of God or Jack Del Rio resting his players for them not the end the year 12-4. That’s the first Wild Card slot already filled. There is one division crown at least mathematically still available, but if Denver gets by Oakland then there isn’t a formula in the world that will put them behind San Diego or Kansas City. So in reality there is just that last Wild Card invitation up in the air.
Pittsburgh right now has a death grip on that final Playoff birth. It only takes a win against Cleveland and a follow-up victory over Detroit and the Steelers get in. Should they stumble however, things get interesting.
Starting at the back of the pack, Kansas City is 8-6 and cannot get in without help - a lot of help. For the Chiefs to make the Playoffs the following scenario must unfold:
Pittsburgh must lose to Cleveland next week if they go 1-1 over Weeks 16 and 17. If they beat Cleveland then they will hold the division record tiebreaker over Kansas City. A loss against the Browns forces the tiebreaker for the Wild Card to go to strength of victory.
I think it’s safe to say that Kansas City is eliminated, but should Pittsburgh stumble and Kansas City get by San Diego, the Chiefs will have a must-win game at home against Cincinnati. As Panzer said below, they’ll be out of for blood.
San Diego on the other hand, has two ways into the postseason. First, they still have that outside shot at the AFC West title. To get the crown three things must happen:
If those three things come to pass then San Diego will be the AFC West champion by virtue of the division record tiebreaker. If you’re looking for a game of the week the final Sunday of the season, think about this: Should Denver lose to Oakland this week and San Diego should get by Kansas City, then the Week 17 game of Broncos at Chargers will be for the AFC West title. If that isn’t enough drama, realize that the winner will go on to the Playoffs - while the loser will likely go home (assuming that Pittsburgh runs the table as we all expect).
The only other way San Diego plays in January is for Pittburgh to go 1-1 to end the year. If the Steelers go at best 1-1, and the Chargers finish 2-0, then San Diego is in with the final Wild Card. Pittsburgh holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, so San Diego can only make the Playoffs with a better overall record. There isn’t any way around it for the Chargers.
The AFC Playoff race isn’t over yet, and there is still a chance for Cincinnati to get that precious bye week. To be continued this week…
Posted on December 16th, 2005 in Uncategorized by panzer || 698 Comments
I know, I know, I shouldn’t be worried about the Bengals next game versus the Lions. The Bengals should blow the Lions out of the water.
There’s no denying that Bengals need to win this game to cement their hold on the division. Like they needed to win the previous Browns game… which they barely did. Buffalo and KC are both much better teams, like how Detroit is better than Cleveland, and they are likely to put up a fight. Additionally, it’s highly unlikely that the Stillers will lose any of their next three games (Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit).
Posted on December 6th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || No Comment
So the first hurdle on the way to an AFC North Championship has been overcome by beating the Steelers.
I want to be as happy and sure as my colleague Panzer is below, but I’m not ready to go there at the moment. As much as my overly analytical mind sees that the path to a division crown is relatively easy from here on out, the bitter Bengals fan inside me who has endured 14 years of misery won’t allow happiness just yet. I can’t let my hopes swell too much until first place is a mathematical reality.
I believe we’re going to do it, but I’m not ready to accept that conclusion just yet.
Posted on November 29th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || 591 Comments
I have a confession to make. I stand before you to reveal myself to all of you loyal GBSB readers. I’m not proud of this, but the truth cannot be denied.
I think I’m in love with the Baltimore Ravens.
Rest assured that my wondering gaze has not simply turned from our beloved Bengals. Over the past two weeks however, the Ravens have managed to send my heart aflutter. For it has been over these past two Sundays that Baltimore has done all of us in Bengalsland two incredible favors.
You can’t call it cheatin’, cause they remind me of you.
The first favor, and the most obvious, is that two Sundays ago they sent a Roethlisbergerless Steelers team down to defeat. Now that the juggernaut that is the Colts have beaten Pittsburgh, Cincinnati now has a full game lead in the AFC North. Not only was this win by Baltimore a simple defeat for Pittsburgh, but it was also a division loss. That fact makes the road to a division title much easier to get to for all of us.
What hasn’t changed is the need for a win on Sunday at Heinz Field. Should the Bengals lose on Sunday the outside chance at still winning the division got a little better because of Baltimore’s win, but the Bengals best bet to take the AFC North is still to beat the Steelers this week. Doing so not only gives us a full two game lead on Pittsburgh, but also does something else: it gives Cincinnati a two game lead in division records.
If you’ve been following the standings with my handy AFC Playoff Sheet (now updated through Week 12), then you already know about both leads. Play with the possible wins and losses for the rest of the year, and a happy fact will jump out at you. Namely, as long as Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh on Sunday, and then beats up on the Cleveland Browns the week after that, the Bengals are virtually assured the division title. In fact, as long as Cincinnati wins this week and next, they could drop two out of their last three games against Detroit, Buffalo, or Kansas City, and still win the AFC North–regardless of what Pittsburgh manages to do.
If and when the Bengals dump the Steelers and Browns, their division record will be 5-1, while Pittsburgh’s could only be, at best, 4-2. Even if the Bengals dropped two of those final three games, and the Steelers won out after losing to us, the Bengals would still win the division with the second tiebreaker, division records. The AFC North is now Cincinnati’s to lose.
Given the wonderful circumstance we find our team in thanks to the Baltimore Ravens, my newfound affection for this team should come as no surprise. As if beating our biggest rival this year wasn’t enough however, the Ravens also managed to win my heart thanks to a second favor they gave to all of us in Bengalsland. Unlike the first one however, this second example is little harder to take, but like that nasty cough medicine you gulp down when you have a cold, we’ll be better for it in the end.
The second favor that we as a member of Bengalfandom should thank Baltimore for is for finally putting everyone on notice that the Bengals defense is terrible. You could argue that the previous game against the Colts was a much better example than this past Sunday against Kyle Boller & Co., and in a way you would be correct. However, after watching that barn burner versus Indianapolis, and then listening to all of the postgame shows and programs discussing what transpired, the talk afterwards was all about how great the Colts offense was. Sure, there was the occasional commentator pointing out the obvious, that defense took a holiday for that game, but by in large all I read, heard, and watched gushed endlessly about the Colts and their unstoppable offense.
The Baltimore Ravens, on the other hand, currently rank 26th in total offense. Kyle Boller’s QB rating for 2005 sits at 60.5, and that was after playing 20 points or so higher against the Bengals where he reached 81.6. Going in to Sunday, Jamal Lewis had amassed only 508 yards on the year. Against Cincinnati he…well, I’ll let The Rushing Table tell the story:
That, my friends, is the second favor that Baltimore has done for us. The Colts needed to learn this lesson two years ago, and look at them now. So must we understand that our defense, for all its turnover producing ability, needs serious work if it is to help justify the URL of this very website.
It’s called tough love, and we all needed just a little bit. Nowcome here Brian Billick, and give us a hug…
Posted on November 18th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || 676 Comments
Last time we reinforced what all of us already knew, that Cincinnati must beat Pittsburgh on December 4. That game is essentially for the AFC North title to us Bengals fans. Losing that game will make it virtually impossible to be Division Champion.
We’ve looked at what the Bengals are facing should they beat Pittsburgh, but what if we lose in three weeks and have to play for a Wild Card birth? Can we make it? The answer is: Probably.
The problem is that one Wild Card slot is already taken. Both Indianapolis and Jacksonville are going to make the Playoffs. One will win the Division, and the other will be a Wild Card. For either of them not to make it at this point would be astonishing. Let’s look at Indianapolis first.
To give you an idea of how bad it has to get for the 9-0 Colts to be left out of the January fun, consider the following: If the Colts never beat a team with a winning record the rest of the 2005 season, they will still finish 11-5. They would lose to, in order, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, and Seattle. For their record to go any lower, either the 2-7 Tennessee Titans or the 2-7 Arizona Cardinals have to beat them as well.
Starting the year 9-0 has its advantages.
Jacksonville on the other hand, has a cakewalk through the bottom feeders of the NFL remaining on their schedule. Their only tough game is the Week 14 match up against the Colts. Other than that their schedule goes like this: Tennessee (2-7), Arizona (2-7), Cleveland (3-6), San Francisco (2-7), Houston (1-8), and then Tennessee again. Do the math and those teams have a combined record of 10-35. Losing to Indy still leaves the Jags at 12-4, which will make the postseason.
Turning our attention to the AFC East, there is no team there that is a threat for the Wild Card. With New England the only club above .500 in that division, they’ll walk away with the crown easily. Buffalo and Miami meanwhile will likely hover at even keel or worse for the rest of the season. No Wild Card threat here, so let’s move along.
What we want as Bengals fans should the thinkable happen at Heinz Field is for the carnage to continue for the AFC West also-rans. Sitting pretty at 7-2, Denver is in the driver’s seat. The Broncos have three division games left against Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego. The Oakland game at Mile High is pretty much a gimmie, so even if they drop the other two games they still finish at least 12-4. If Dallas kicks them around that week Denver still ends the year at 11-5, which just might win the Division outright.
Both Kansas City and San Diego have a tough road ahead of them. Kansas City still has left on its schedule a game against the Patriots, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, Chargers, and our Bengals. Managing a .500 record against that lineup leaves them at 9-7, at least two games behind the Broncos should Denver’s worst case scenario come true. Kansas City has to beat Denver and win three out of the other four contests with the teams listed above to have a chance. That will prove be difficult, if not impossible. I give them at best a record of 9-7 at best, but my money is on 8-8.
For San Diego things aren’t that much easier. They have to go to Washington, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and then play Denver at home. If they split those games they will likely end up 10-6, unless they stumble against Miami or Oakland. I however, have a hard time believing that they can win three out of those first four games I mentioned, especially when three of the ones on that list are away games. 11-5 would be their record should they pull it off, but I think that, like Kansas City, 9-7 is where they’ll land.
So, unless Kansas City or San Diego go on a run, and given what we’ve just gone over that isn’t likely, the Bengals can lock up a Wild Card birth provided they lose no more than two of their remaining games. That would leave them at 12-4, which should put them comfortable ahead of any AFC West Wild Card challenger, probably by two games. Barring a collapse that will go down in Bengals history as one of the most painful ever, Cincinnati should make the postseason.
The drought of no Playoffs since 1990 is coming to an end in 2005.
Posted on November 16th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || No Comment
You’ve had access to the sheet for a little bit now, so now it’s time to figure some things out. First and foremost, are the Bengals going to make the Playoffs? And if Cincinnati does get in to the postseason, will it be as Division Champion or via the Wild Card?
Allow me to spoil the ending with something you already know: It all depends on beating the Steelers on December 4.
Looking at the rest of the Bengals schedule we see three tough games against winning opponents. Indianapolis comes to Paul Brown this Sunday, and of course there is the showdown with Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh two weeks after that. The only other remaining tough game is the last week of the season versus Kansas City in Arrowhead. Should the Bengals not beat an opponent with a winning record all year they’ll go 11-5. This would mean that they’ll be swept by Pittsburgh and have no chance at the AFC North crown.
The problem for all of us Bengals fans is that the Steelers remaining schedule is very weak. The only truly tough games are against us and Indy. You could argue that the Week 14 game with Chicago might be one they could lose, but personally I have no faith in the Bears 6-3 record.
Besides, even if Pittsburgh loses to both Indy and Chicago, but wins the rest of their games, they’ll finish 12-4 and have the first tiebreaker against Cincinnati. Should that happen, Cincinnati won’t be able to win the Division even if they beat every other team besides Indy and Pittsburgh. We’ll tie the Steelers at 12-4, but as I said Pittsburgh will have the first tiebreaker having swept us.
So let’s assume for right now that we’re going to beat Pittsburgh in three weeks. How then do we take the Division? In truth, that may not be a question we can answer, even if things work out as we think they might.
The game this Sunday versus the Colts matters if Pittsburgh manages to go to Indianapolis and beat them the week after we play the Colts. Even if the Bengals run the table after losing next Sunday, and Pittsburgh wins all of its other games, the Steelers would beat the Bengals in the third tiebreaker, Common Opponents. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh would be 13-3, 1-1 head to head, and 5-1 in the Division, but the Steelers would be 7-1 against Common Opponents while the Bengals are 6-2. If Cincinnati loses on Sunday but wins all of their remaining games, Pittsburgh needs to lose at least one more game during the rest of the year for Cincinnati to pull ahead. Pittsburgh’s own showdown with Indy on December 11 would do nicely for that second loss.
But again, for this to come true Cincinnati has to run the table from Week 12 on out, and that Kansas City game has me a little worried. First, it’s at Kansas City. Second, it’s entirely possible that KC could be battling for their own division title that week against Denver.
So in summation, to have any chance at winning the AFC North, Cincinnati must beat the Steelers on December 4 at Heinz Field. While the scenarios are there for the Bengals to take the title should Pittsburgh slip, the odds are not in our favor. The Bengals must beat the Steelers, or else they’ll have to try their luck with the Wild Card.
Next update: The Wild Card Outlook
Posted on November 14th, 2005 in Uncategorized by JANET || No Comment
Above is the link to my custom Excel spreadsheet that outlines the AFC Playoff outlook for the chosen few who might make it. Download it to play with various Playoff scenarios. Before we get into the possibilities however, I’ll outline how to use the sheet which is easy to mess aroung with.
The spreadsheet outlines the Playoff hopes for 10 AFC teams: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New England, Miami, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego. The first thing that should have jumped out at you from that list is that Miami and Buffalo are on it. No, I don’t think either of those teams have a shot at the Playoffs, but allow me to explain why they remain.
When I first began to put this sheet together a couple of weeks ago, Miami still had a viable chance–on paper at least. Now however, they’ve dropped two straight to slip to 3-6, and Buffalo has moved ahead of them in the standings. My plan was leave Miami to show just how much trouble average, or slightly below average, teams are in. Once the Bills moved ahead of the Dolphins though, I didn’t feel as though I could leave Buffalo out. So, I added them in at the last minute.
In the our favorite conference, the AFC North, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are the only teams that have a serious chance at the division crown. In the East, New England and the afore mentioned Miami and Buffalo make the sheet, although only New England has a real chance at the Playoffs. In the South, Indy and Jacksonville get listed, and in the West, Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego are on. Every other team in the AFC is effectively out of it, so they were left off.
Each team has two columns underneath them. On the left is their schedule, and on the right is whether they Won or Lost the game. Games in italics haven’t happened yet.
Below the schedule are four sections. The first counts the number of “Won” and “Lost” entries to give the current record and winning percentage. Below that is the same thing for their Division. Third is the record against the Common Opponents to other teams on the list in their division, and the last column is against the two AFC teams that are not common opponents.
Why the overall record is there is obvious. Why then, did I add the other three columns? Easy: Tie breakers.
Read that link and you’ll see that if two teams have the same record, the first tie breaker is head to head. I didn’t add that because it’s easy to calculate in your head. The second tie breaker is the division record, followed by the record against common opponents, then against conference opponents. After that it’s strength of victory, which is where the math starts to get annoying. You can calculate that yourself (and if things go right for Cincinnati, you might have to).
Download the sheet and play with it for a bit, and then we’ll talk what-ifs.
Posted on November 5th, 2005 in Uncategorized by Niko || 645 Comments
Hospitals suck. I should know, I’ve been in one for the past couple of weeks. The food is bland, the concept of comfort is non-existent, and (worst of all, of course) I’m not allowed to watch Bengals games on the TV in my room. What. The. Hell. Talk about depressing. At least I am allowed my laptop, which I use to keep as up to date as possible (basically I refresh the yahoo sports page over and over again).
About the only thing that makes me smile these days is the thought of Tommy Maddox in as QB for the Steelers. That’s something, at least because you know he’s doing his part to help the Bengals win the division. Go get ‘em, Tommy.
That’s all I have the energy for now. I’ll have a more up to date review of this cocktease of a season when I get out of here (or if the nurses, aka the bitches with needles, let me sneak in a game).