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Irony, you fickle bitch.

It would seem only natural that the one time I start to believe in this team, the one time I allow my hope to start to come out of hiding, the moment I declare that an 8-0 start to the year is a distinct possibility, the Bengals would then proceed to play 11 15 quarters of some of the worst football I’ve ever seen. I suppose I have only myself to blame. You would think I would have figured it out by now, after a decade of dashed hopes and downtrodden devotion, but alas I still have the same lesson to learn, just in a different way.

This would be the point in my posts of the past where I would trot out the rushing board and point out how our opponents running backs are racking up yards as if the defense wasn’t there. That was certainly the case against the “I-don’t-think-you-can-make-the-case-they-are-among-the-elite-of-the-league” Patriots where Laurence Maroney had an average of 8.3 yards per rush, netting himself 125 yards on just 15 attempts. For once however, it isn’t the defense that needs to be ragged upon. Now it is not the defense that is failing alone, but the offense has grown sick as well.

Most notably is the poor pass protection of the offensive line. Palmer is being haggled and harassed almost every time he drops back it seems, and that is affecting the entire offense. I think this is the primary cause for Chad Johnson’s disappearance from the scoreboard and stat sheet. C.J. doesn’t have time to run deep routes when Palmer has to get the ball out quickly because the QB has defensive linemen in his face.

Now, rather than Chad being the first read on passing situations, it seems to me that T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now Palmer’s #1 receiver. Whereas Chad has more total yards for the year (451 vs. 422), both he and T.J. have an equal number of receptions (36), but T.J. has twice as many touchdowns (4 vs. 2). I think the tide has shifted toward Housh, but I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

For seven weeks, the Bengals had no swagger. There was no Chad Johnson on the microphone explaining how many touchdowns he planned to get that week, or which corner back he was calling out. Last week that all changed, finally, but it didn’t matter as the o-line couldn’t give Palmer time, and the defense was unable to stop a now deadly passing Michael Vick.

The Bengals are in real trouble. The defense is still having problems stopping opponents, and now the offense is starting to sputter. We’re 4-3 right now, and there are four other teams in the AFC at 4-4 or better who aren’t leading (or tied in) their division. That’s five teams competing for only two Wild Cards.

I am worried.

We’re halfway through the regular season and it’s the off week for the Bengals, a time for rest and reflection.

I’ll preface this short post by saying that I probably wouldn’t ever classify myself as a “true” Bengals fan. I’m not from Cincinnati and I have no deep, emotional connection with the team. I’ve always pulled for the underdog, though, and I have always thought that it would be great if the Bengals won the Super Bowl. That being said, my interest in the Bengals is mostly that of an outsider and the only real impact their performance has for me is how well they perform for my fantasy team (although I suppose if they go to the Super Bowl this site will get substantially more traffic which is good.

This year I selected Carson Palmer as my quarterback in my fantasy league. I nabbed him in the third round, which has been proven thus far to be a very wise decision. While he’s yet to break 30 FFPts/G, Palmer has been very consistent in his weekly performances. His fantasy performance has consistently been better than Peyton Manning (our league’s first pick) and it’s definitely been on par with Donovan McNabb.

Only Donovan McNabb and Tom Brady have compiled more passing yards than Palmer (with far more attempts at that), and his QB rating blows them out of the water. More importantly, Palmer is surrounded by a better offense environment that McNabb and Brady. The Eagles have their own hilariously distracting problems to deal with and the Pats have been struggling with injuries all over the place. Who knew, intangibles really do count for something. All this adds up to one conclusion: Carson Palmer is currently the most valuable fantasy quarterback. Amazing!

Back in September, in my first post here I speculated on the fantasy value of the Bengals and came to the conclusion that “Carson Palmer is the lynchpin for the entire Bengals offense; all the fantasy stats of the other players will directly depend on how he progresses as a QB.” I was pretty dour as to the outcome at the time. I’m willing to admit now that I was dead wrong. Palmer is proving himself to be a very capable quarterback and I’m glad he’s on my team.

I’m sorry true Bengals fans. I don’t think Bengals are really going to make it to the Super Bowl this year; in the years to come, yes, but not now. That’s a fact. At the very least, with Carson Palmer leading my team, I stand a chance of making it to the fantasy Super Bowl this year.

Here’s a fact that will blow your mind: Carson Palmer has thrown for more yards this season than every other QB in the league.

Two weeks into the 2005, and he has already managed to impress us all by not spectacularly imploding, which is a huge (albeit nice) surprise. Granted, having more TDs than INTs would be considered favorable in this town, but Carson has achieved an amazing 617 yards thrown, 5 touchdowns, and has a cumulative QB rating of 107.8. More importantly his team is 2-0. It’s too early for accurate predictions, but if they keep this style of play up they will have a chance to win the division over the Steelers, or secure a wild card spot at the very least (now I’m in fantasy land as the defense and/or flagrant penalties will inevitably ruin all chances of success).

I’m not the only one who has been dumbstruck by this sudden and profound change in Carson Palmer. Here’s what some famous voices from the trenches have to say about his recent performance:

“Carson Palmer is quickly developing into a great quarterback.” -Vinnie Iyer

“Palmer has been one of the two best quarterbacks in the league to start the season.” -Michael Fabiano

“Two games into his second season as Bengals starter, Carson Palmer arrived as an elite quarterback - and an early-season MVP candidate… Palmer is the fast-maturing quarterback who has greatly elevated his game.” -Jim Corbett

“Things are looking up in Cincinnati, and Carson Palmer is a big reason why.” -Andrew Pema
“While not exactly a bum last season, Palmer appears to be on the verge of stardom.” -Randy Hill

“Carson Palmer has arrived, and this team isn’t going away.” -Mark Maske

“Palmer is taking his game to another level.” -Joe Kay
“Carson Palmer is on fire right now. Am I’m a whore to the entertainment industry.” -Bill Simmons
Praise heaped on a Cincinnati player? Are we in bizarre world?

So the first game of the season is in the bag. Go Bengals!

We feel that it’s a little too early in the season to start talking about strategy or failure since hilarious uncertainty currently rules the day in the league (Miami routed Denver? San Francisco beat St. Louis? New Orleans won? We live on the moon!). Thus, we will instead take this time to opine upon a subject that has mercilessly been beaten to death by every analyst ever during the past two months: Fantasy Football.

Most of the advice out there regarding fantasy football is either stupidly obvious (”draft a good RB”) or patently wrong (”Jake Plummer should be your starting QB”) so there really is no reason to take our advice over that of a so-called football “expert.” We only do this for fun, after all. Still, we’ve examined all the facts, done the calculations, and determined that if you draft some Bengals players for your fantasy team you will probably end up doing “okay” in your league.

It’s a bold assertion, I know. Let’s scientifically break this down by position:

Quarterback

Sleeper is the word on the street when it comes to starting Bengals QB Carson Palmer. Palmer was 26 for 34 against Cleveland last Sunday, with 2 TDs and 1 interception, which adds up to a quarterback rating of 107.5. Nice, but remember, this was against Cleveland. A more impressive stat is Palmer’s average QB rating for his last four games going back to last season - 113.7! Those are solid Kurt Warner-type numbers from his “sold-his-soul-to-the-devil-in-exchange-for-football-prowess” era not his “benched-in-favor-of-Eli-freaking-Manning” era.

Although Palmer’s career average QB rating hovers in the basement just under 80, he has clearly been an unusual streak of “being good” lately. It remains to be seen if this improvement is real and here to stay, rather than a cruel fluke of fate. Most “experts” subscribe to the Joey Harrington theory and predict that Palmer is going to have a breakout season this year simply because it’s his third season in the league and gosh, he probably should be getting better right about now. Remember, though; this is called the Joey Harrington theory for a reason so we’re not betting the farm on any real improvement from Palmer until his numbers get more consistent.

John Kitna - Although he is on the roster, Kitna really has no fantasy value except in the God’s Squad Fantasy League.

Wide Receiver

To some extent Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh find their fate resting in the lily-white hands of Carson Palmer. His development as a decent passing QB this season will directly impact what sort of numbers his wide receivers put up on the board. Houshmandzadeh is an improving receiver, although he is still not worthy of being started in most leagues. Johnson, however, is a top-five receiver as long as he can keep his mouth shut and doesn’t piss off the wrong defensive lineman. Yes, I know, there is something to be said for having spunk and spirit, but there’s also something to be said for not making a goddamned fool out of yourself. Pepto Bismol, anyone?

Kicker

Let’s face it - kickers are next to worthless in most fantasy leagues. Which is a bit of a shame because Shayne Graham is actually a pretty decent kicker. Whatever meager points he manages to accumulate will depend on how Palmer and Johnson do in getting the ball down the field and into the end-zone to set up the kick. If they do well, Graham will put a few extra points on the board for your fantasy team. If they do poorly� well, so you miss a few extra points, no big deal (assuming you aren’t an idiot and didn’t draft an all-Bengal team. And if you did, I’m sure your losses will be plenty even before their bye in Week 10. Idiot).

Defense

Bengals? Defense? Let’s not even go here.

Running Back

And finally, the most important position in most fantasy leagues: the running back. Rudi Johnson is a premiere running back who should be even better this year than in 2004. That is, as long as he gets plenty of playing time and stops violating team rules. Seriously, what the hell, Rudi.

What does this all mean? Well, it’s safe to say that Carson Palmer is the lynchpin for the entire Bengals offense; all the fantasy stats of the other players will directly depend on how he progresses as a QB. If Palmer does indeed have a breakout season then the point production of receivers, kicker, and running back will be much, much higher. The defense will also be positively affected; the more downs Palmer gets, the longer he keeps his offense on the field and the more the defense can rest.

So now it’s a waiting game. Our fate, as well as the production of our fantasy Bengals players, are in the possibly-capable hands of Carson Palmer.

Crap.