If you’ve been following along over the past couple of weeks you know that I’ve been continually asking the question, “How good are the Bengals?” My answer has always been some version of, “We don’t know yet.” After getting past the bottom rungs of the NFL in the first four weeks of the season we couldn’t really make any definitive judgments. As I’ve said, we’d have to wait until Week 5 at Jacksonville.
Well folks, Week 5 is upon us, and it’s time to find out just how good this team is.
I must admit though, that this game is not quite going to be the test that I had hoped for. Like most of the football analysts going in to the 2005 season, I thought Jacksonville would be a team that should improve on its 2004 record of 9-7 and make the Playoffs. After four weeks of games and a 2-2 record however, that may not come to pass.
Jacksonville’s pair of wins have come against the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets, and neither of these teams has done much to impress anyone this year. The Seahawks remain the same head scratching team that they were last year, winning against the Falcons and spanking Arizona, but then losing to Jacksonville as well as the Redskins. The Jets meanwhile are simply a mess at 1-3 as Pennington has been hurt since apparently the start of the season, and is now out for the year along with their second string quarterback.
On the other side of the ledger, the losses that the Jaguars have suffered have come against the undefeated Colts and the 3-1 Broncos. While Indianapolis has fattened up on the likes of Baltimore, Cleveland, and Tennessee, they have at least looked good doing it. That Colts defense looks real pretty on the highlight reel so far, but we’ll wait until they face some high-powered offensive competition before we declare their troubles from last year to be a thing of the past.
Denver meanwhile, looks as though it might be one of the better teams of the year. Its 3-1 record has come by beating the Chargers, Chiefs, and the afore mention Jaguars. Both the Chargers and Chiefs now sit at 2-2, but San Diego has recently looked more like the team they were last year. Over the last two weeks LaDainian Tomlinson has remembered how to run, and Drew Brees remembered that LT could catch passes, as well. That information wasn’t relayed in time for the Bronco game, however. Unlike Denver though, Kansas City has only won against the Jets and Raiders, so their .500 record may be hiding something.
So what does all this studying of the Jaguars’ record, who they beat and who those teams beat, who beat them and the caliber of those teams, mean anyway? What we’re trying to ascertain is the pecking order of the NFL, and where our Bengals fit in to the ranking. So far all we can say is that Cincinnati has at least risen above the rabble of the lower classes, and not much more.
One of my favorite football sites out on the web is Cold, Hard Football Facts, a site that tries to give the pigskin facts that are based on what the stats and numbers tell them. One of the reasons I enjoy CHFF is that they have managed to organize and codify something I’ve thought for years. Namely, that a good NFL team winning against another good team is going to matter more than anything else.
At CHFF they call this their Quality Wins Quotient, and it’s something I’ve come to put a lot of stock in. This is why each week as the Bengals racked up wins against the Browns, Vikings, Bears, and Texans, I’ve said that we shouldn’t be shouting, “Who-dey!” quite yet. It was all about Week 5, and as the exercise we just went through has pointed out, Week 5 isn’t quite holding the significance it once did.
Jacksonville doesn’t associate with the inferior squads of the NFL as represented by Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago and Houston, that much is clear. However, they are not the Playoff lock that most thought them to be. So then, what does a win against Jacksonville mean for Cincinnati?
What I think it means is that we’ve got one of the NFL’s better teams on our hands. With a 5-0 record it would take a miracle collapse for them to finish a third year at 8-8. We could start seriously discussing at least a ten win season with Cincinnati only needing to go a game under .500 the rest of the way to pull it off. We could also begin to whisper the idea that the AFC North Championship might be taken away from Pittsburgh, and talk openly of being able to beat the Steelers straight up.
A loss however, makes things a bit more complicated. Looking at the Bengals schedule it’s not out of line to talk about seven wins from Week 6 on. The Cincy schedule is fairly weak, so they could lose Sunday night and still finish 11-5. That record would be deceiving, though. Three of those losses could be at the hands of the NFL’s elite teams with a pair of games against the Steelers and one with the Colts. 11-5 will make the Playoffs, but the weak schedule means we should all plan on an early exit from the postseason.
So we’re faced with a final decision. By 11:30 PM Sunday night we’ll either have a mediocre Bengals team, or a good Cincinnati squad we can all start shouting, “Who-dey!” about. That will be something to make us all want to be like Chad and do the Ohio Riverdance.